Al-Qaeda’s JNIM is closing in on Mali. If Mali falls, no West African country can stop what comes next

JNIM terrorist takeover of Mali would trigger regional collapse, analysts warn

A terrorist takeover of Mali by al-Qaeda-linked group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) would shatter the security architecture of West Africa, Africa Defense Forum warned in a new analysis.

JNIM’s alliance with the Tuareg-based Azawad Liberation Front drove government forces and Russian mercenaries from northern Mali during the same April offensive that killed Defence Minister Sadio Camara. Analysts warn that a JNIM-governed Mali would not remain contained — the group would become exponentially more dangerous, wielding the manpower, finances, and weapons of a national military.

“If Mali falls, Burkina Faso and Niger will be threatened,” Nigerian security researcher Saheed Owonikoko warned, adding that Niger’s collapse would directly imperil Nigeria.